Bitcoin is forecast to reach 100,000 USD in 2024

After increasing by half last year, Bitcoin could benefit from the "halving" event and the approval of an ETF, helping the price rise to $100,000 this year, according to experts.

Bitcoin has had a major bull run in 2023, with the digital currency gaining around 152% on the year, surpassing $40,000. This recovery is considered positive after a difficult 2022 with a series of collapses of famous currencies and projects, liquidity problems and bankruptcy of many businesses.

FTX - once one of the world's largest cryptocurrency exchanges - filed for bankruptcy in 2022, causing users to lose billions of dollars. In 2023, founder Sam Bankman-Fried was convicted of seven charges related to user fraud, which could lead to up to 115 years in prison. Also last year, Changpeng Zhao (CZ) of Binance pleaded guilty to criminal charges of violating anti-money laundering regulations, then resigned as CEO. This exchange faces a fine of 4.3 billion USD.

Although 2023 witnessed two incidents involving industry leaders, observers still see this as an opportunity to move forward and draw lines with bad behavior, making the market transparent. They are hoping for two factors to help create waves this year: the Bitcoin "halving" event and the possibility of a Bitcoin ETF in the US being approved.

Bitcoin "Halving" is an event that occurs every four years, cutting miners' rewards in half. This helps maintain the supply limit of 21 million units. In previous cycles, "halving" often accompanied Bitcoin price increases.

Meanwhile, more and more people are excited about the scenario that the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) will approve the first Bitcoin ETF after years of opposition. This helps investors pour money into the market without having to directly hold or trade. The market is hoping this will attract more investors, especially large institutional investors.

Symbol of Bitcoin - the world's largest cryptocurrency in terms of capitalization with about 830 billion USD by the end of 2023. Photo: CNBC

Based on these two factors, fund manager Mark Mobius predicts that Bitcoin can move to the region of 60,000 USD per unit this year. In 2022, he correctly predicted the cryptocurrency would drop to $20,000 when it was still trading above $28,000. In 2023, he offered 10,000 USD, but that did not come true.

Mobius says the world's largest cryptocurrency could reach $60,000 by the end of this year. "Having a Bitcoin ETF will increase market interest in cryptocurrencies," he said.

Giving a more optimistic forecast at 75,000 USD , Youwei Yang - chief economist of digital currency mining company Bit Mining, said that Bitcoin will trade at about 25,000-75,000 USD in 2024. By 2025, the level fluctuates. The price will be 45,000-130,000 USD.

"Even though high prices are possible, not all investors will profit due to huge market volatility and FOMO among many," he warned.

Meanwhile, leading European digital asset management company CoinShares forecasts a price of 80,000 USD . Head of research James Butterfill said the digital asset landscape will undergo "significant change" in 2024, due to the potential approval of US Bitcoin ETFs. According to him, this is a step forward that makes digital currencies more closely integrated with traditional financial markets.

This unit estimates that if about 3 billion USD is poured in, the price of this currency will soon reach 80,000 USD. In addition, the scenario of central banks cutting interest rates could also "play a decisive role" in pushing market prices up.

100,000 USD is the prediction of investment bank Standard Chartered. This forecast was made in November last year, doubling the forecast 6 months ago. The bank also believes that the approval of many ETFs and the "halving" event will stimulate the market.

Similarly, Carol Alexander - finance professor at Sussex University (UK) also predicted a price range of 100,000 USD. In 2022, she quite successfully raised the scenario of Bitcoin falling to $10,000. That year, the cryptocurrency dropped to its lowest level of about 15,480 USD. By 2023, Alexander said Bitcoin would rise as high as $50,000 and in fact the currency reached a yearly high of about $44,700 in early December.

The professor predicts that in the first quarter of the year, Bitcoin will trade around 40,000-55,000 USD as "professional traders (sharks) create volatility". The next phase will depend on when the SEC resolves the lawsuits with Coinbase and Binance, which could be done before approval of a Bitcoin ETF. After that, the price of this cryptocurrency will increase to $70,000, a new all-time high.

Market prices going forward will depend on the ability of ETF providers, such as Blackrock and Fidelity, to prevent price manipulation. According to Ms. Alexander, before the end of 2024, the price of Bitcoin could exceed $100,000, but only if Blackrock and Fidelity are able to protect investors participating in their ETFs.

This year 131 international organizations, from 73 countries, partnered with the PRA in Washington, D.C., and its Hernando De Soto Fellow Prof. Sary Levy-Carciente to produce the 17th edition of the IPRI..
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